IR 350 Final Timeline

This doctrine was announced to retroactively justify the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in August 1968 that ended the Prague Spring, along with earlier Soviet military interventions, such as the invasion of Hungary in 1956. These interventions were meant to put an end to liberalization efforts and uprisings that had the potential to compromise Soviet hegemony inside the Eastern bloc, which was considered by the Soviets to be an essential defensive and strategic buffer in case hostilities with NATO were to break out.

In practice, the policy meant that limited independence of communist parties was allowed. However, no country would be allowed to leave the Warsaw Pact, disturb a nation's communist party's monopoly on power, or in any way compromise the cohesiveness of the Eastern bloc.

Brezhnev worried idea of decentralization will spread to the other Eastern satellite states

Strategic Arms Limitation Talks - 2 new leaders in power (Nixon and Brezhnev)
-Nixon was first president that admitted parity rather than insist on US superiority

First arms limitation agreement of the Cold War- necessary because by 1969 US and USSR had achieved strategic parity

SALT I Treaty froze the 2 superpowers into a position of parity in strategic weapons system and preserved the state of mutual assured destruction that was supposed to be most reliable form of insurance against nuclear war

Both sides started to see advantaged that arms talk would bring - especially since parity meant that neither side could really "win"
-limitng arms would also free up budgets spent on defense spending that could be used to increase standard of living (especially necessary in USSR)

Rather than focusing on # of weapon accumulated during last 20 yrs, SALT focused on placing a cap on:
• Delivery vehicles ( that would carry warheads)
• Submarine launched ballistic missiles (SBLMs)
• Anti-ballistic missiles

SALT survived even after Nixon's departure because Kissinger stayed on as SoS and Ford continued the policy

SALT I was the first time an nd was forecasted to unrestrained competition for strategic superiority

While US was bogged down in Vietnam, USSR was able to achieve strategic parity in nuclear weapons which prompted the need for arms limitations

Nixon recognizes that the arms race has reached a plateau

Brezhnev and Carter try to keep spirit of detente alive by singing SALT II

Withdrawal from Global Commitments:
-Out of Afghanistan
-Withdrawal from Indochina
-Aid to Castro cut off
-Sandinistas Voted out of Power

Collapse of East European Empire

-Poland- Political Revolution- Solidarity
-CZ- Velvet Revolution
-Romania- End of a Dictator
-Turmoil in East Germany- Street demonstrations and fall of the Berlin Wall
-German Reunification

As the Soviet Union began to lose control of its satellite system in Eastern europe and abandoned clients in third world during 1980s , the internal political structure began to unravel

In 1985- Gorbachev becomes General Secretary of the USSR
1988- becomes President of USSR

Gorbachev believes SU has to be fundamentally restructured for 2 reasons:
-economic
- economic decline dueing Brezhnev years took away form power and influence (especially considering population and size)
-arms race
- US had ever increasing technological advantage that ensured it would prevail in bilateral arms race

Gorbachev’s proposal:

Glasnost- political openness- settle all political disputes with adversaries to form stable int’l system where he could then focus on Soviet domestic problems – increased participation in political life

Perestroika- economic restructuring – decentralization of industry and free market practices to stimulate consumer goods sector

Gorbachev's vision of glasnost and perestroika led it to make conciliatory moves, such as renewing arms talks

Signed INF Treaty in 1987- first arms control treaty in a decade
Also signed START in 1991 which focused on reducing rather than limiting nuclear arms

Gorbachev also publicly denunciated Brezhnev in the same way Kruschev denounced Stalin-which inspired populations to rise up against their communist leaders in the Eastern satellite states

Also with arms control agreements Gorbachev didn't consider them indispensable anymore against NATO and now he viewed them as liabilities that were draining resources so no attempts made to stop the revolutionary political changes pccuring in Eastern Europe at the end of the 1980s

Bush and Gorbachev sign START -
Strategic Arms Reduction and will focus on reducing rather than just limiting like SALT had done

The 60s is a period where other countries hallenge the bipolar international system that has been rigidly stated since the end of wWII

The end for eh 60s we see that the 2 superpowers no longer dictate the system and the stem is developing into a mutlipolar one

A primary example is France, who under De Gaulle pursues a grand design trying to become the center of power in the European continent loosen reliance on US alliance to become independent form either superpower economically and politically.

De Gaulle originally returns to power to settle the French dispute in Algeria and started the process of decolonization in Africa that ended by 1962
-Settling the Algeria Revolution is difficult b/c Algeria has a settler colony, not just territorial owning, who think of themselves as "French Algerians"
-the French Algerans are an elite group who want to retain control
-Also Algeria is not technically a colony but one an overseas "Department" of France
-De Gaulle ultiamtely concludes that France could not keep Algeria so he opens up secret negotiations with the Liberation Front of Algeria and ultimately grants them independence in 1962- but France is going for stain close ties with its former colonies though it grants them independence

Reasons for Wanting French Power without US Support

-Had nostalgic view of France as a once great imperial power and does not like the subservient position it occupies under the US and without loosening ties would never reach great power status again

-Unreliable protection against Soviet Aggression
-insisted that with Sovet development of ICBM, US would not have defense of Europe as high priority needing to keep in mind its own safety
-Also accelerated weapons program, convinced that no nation in modern world could be influential w/o nuclear power

De Gaulle's vision is ultimately incompatible with Washingotn's
-De Gaulle wants a disruption in the Atlantic Alliance that will have European Community shift toward integration
-While Washington envsion strengthening the transatlantic partnership
-example of French defiance: 1966 France Withdraws its troops from NATO

In his bid to form a new nucleus of power in Europe, France looks to its homer enemy : West Germany
-Looking to eastblish ties b/c West Germany has economic advantage while France now has a nuclear deterrent (and east Germany barred from developing weapons)

But De Gaulle's vision ultimately fails - "Paris Spring" of 1968 represents domestic unrest about De Gaulle's rule and his plan had overestimated French power andEurope's willingness to defend itself without American assistance

Hallstein Doctrine instituted in 1955 was major obstacle toward imporving relations b/w East an West Germany

It asserted that West Germany represented all of Germany- showing dream of reunification

But it also said Germant- meaning West Germany- would ton have not relations with any country that recognizes East Germany

Brandt abandons the Doctrine in 1967 and starts opening up relations

The Prague Spring reforms were an attempt by Dubček to grant additional rights to the citizens in an act of partial decentralization of the economy and democratization.

The reforms, especially the decentralization of administrative authority, were not received well by the Soviets, who, after failed negotiations, sent thousands of Warsaw Pact troops and tanks to occupy the country ad thy occupied until 1991

Brandt’s Social Democrats win the parliamentary elections in 1969, and he becomes West Germany’s first Socialist chancellor. He steps up his campaign to improve his country’s relations with the Communist bloc.

What keeps the Cold War burning in Europe is Germany's political status and Eastern frontiers
-Brandt will recognize the Oder-Neisse line in 1970
-Basic Treaty will be signed 1972 recognizing "Two States, One Nation"

Brandt introduces Ostpolitik- "Eastern Policy"
-Intent on impriving relations with the communist world and by doing so hopes to reduce tensions in Europe a a whole and ultimately between Communist and non-Communist world
-Represented a profound shift in attitudes toward East Germany and communit allies
-Detente became the means of pursuing goal of reunification - which is a reversal front he thgouht that reunification would lead to detente

Abandons Hallstein Doctrine -1967

August 12, 1970- Soviet-German Non-Aggression Pact Signed
-Moscow looking to lessen ensigns in Germany b/c i the 1970s it was looking to further cooperate with Washington and the West b/c it was fearing the growing power of China and wanted economic aid form the West

Recognized the Oder-Neisse line as the permanent legal border between Poland and Germany.

The line represented where Poland had annexed a large part of Eastern Germany and expelled the Germans that lived there and ended the preoccupation that Germany might seek to revise the border

Part of Willy Brandt's policy of Ostpolitik- looking to the East in order to lessen tensions between communist and non-communist world

USSR also looking to lessen tensions b/c it want improved relations with the West considering the growing power of China due to the Sino-Soviet split that had begun in 1960

Two States, One Nation

Brandt becomes the first West German leader to visit East Germany
-Looking to pursue good relations and a promise not to commit aggression against one another, to respect sovereignty
-Brandt cannot take final step of according formal diplomatic relations b/c it goes against the West German constitution so they refer to the settlement as "Two States, One Nation"

After WWII there had been no peace conference, so Helsinki is meant as a political settlement of Europe

Led to Helsinki Final Act
3 baskets:
-Basket One
• European borders declared inviolable, codifying post-WW II European borders established in 1945
• (tremenedous win for SU)
-Basket Two
• Promised cooperation in trade and cultural exchange
-Basket Three
• Guaranteed respect for fundamental human rights and established a monitoring (enforcement) mechanisms
• This was lobbied and a win for the US
• But eventually leads to dissonance in Eastern

Soviet - U.S. Rivalry in Africa (1975-79)
Soviet Intermediate-Range
Missiles in Europe (1977-79)
Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan (1979)

The USSR began to deploy intermediate-range missile, which was mobile (transported on trucks) and could reach the territory of most of America’s West European allies.

U.S. demanded that the USSR dismantle all SS-20s, the USSR refused.

The USSR demanded that the British and French nuclear forces be included in the negotiations, the U.S. refused claiming it had no right to bargain for its allies.

Two Sides remained deadlocked until 1985-1987- INF treaty and subsequent START Treaty which led Reagan to preside over largest military buildup in history

Reagan also floated idea of Strategic Defense Initiative and abandoning mutual assured destruction which consisted of space-based "rail gun” a proposed system that would electronically launch "smart" projectiles to destroy incoming missiles.

Represented Breakthrough in Arms Control and paved way for START Negotiations

Signed by Reagan and Gorbachev

European Monetary Union had seeds in 1957 Rome Treaty
The idea was unveiled to
-in short term: coordinate exchange rates more efficiently
-in long term: be nucleus of European central bank that would issue a common currency

The disintegration of the East European Communsit bloc at the end of the 1908s conincided with progress toward integration in western Europe

LEading toward MAastricht Conference and Treaty in 1991

European countries meet to make strides toward European Union and develop a radical plan to ditch national currencies for a common currency managed by a European central Bank- with the new "euro" being in full circulation by 2002.

Established the name European Union

First seeds had been planted in 1957 Rome Treat and the Eu had undergone different types off economic forms- form regional trade organization to free trade area to full economic union after the Maastrciht Treaty now that it adopted a central bank and common currency

Remaining Problems for the EU:

Even until he present, the EU will struggle to converge on a common security policy
-France and Germany tried to spearhead movement for a common european army termed "Eurocorpors" but that idea was halted and Eu still struggles on security issues
-But most countries unwilling to sacrifice their army, and the idea of a common European Defense also assumed a single European foreign policy, so today struggle to find cohesive defense and security policy

-EU was also seen as 'failing' its first challenge on the european continent- the breakup of Yugoslavia from 1991-1995 where NATO had to intervene in Europe;s first war since 1945

-Also issue of expansion, EU has strict criteria for allowing new members, though it did successfully expand in 2004 to bring its total membership to

This project stressed the development of heavy industry on the Soviet model. To plan better, the first modern census was taken in 1953; the Chinese population was shown to be 583 million, a figure far greater than had been anticipated. Most pressing needs: food for the burgeoning population, domestic capital for investment, and purchase of Soviet-supplied technology, capital equipment, and military hardware.

BREAKUP OF THE MONOLITHIC COMMUNIST BLOC – led Nixon to re-evluate American policy toward China

By late 1960s the Sino-Soviet break was undeniable with fierce diplomatic clashes (despite jointly helping Vietnam during the war) which Nixon then sought to ecplot to pursue butter relations with after 1973, once he had pulled out of Vietnam

4 Main Reasons for Split
----Mao believes Kruechev does not support "True communism"

Mao was a great admirer of Stalin who led strong government and he hates the contrast between the leadership for ha tSoviet Union and the Khrushchev's new policy of "peaceful coexistence."

He sees that policy as a betrayal of Marxist/Leninist and Stalinist theory and now China wil begin to emerge as an alternative to the Soviet france of communism with some "Maoist" factions popping up in communist countries

----China's nuclear ambitions

Mao realizes that if he expects his country to become a real power he has to go nuclear but in 1959 Khrushchev abruptly reneged on pledge to supply sample atomic bomb and technical assistance to manufacture it

Despite the termination of Soviet assistance, China succeeded in developing nuclear weapons on their own, that they saw as necessary to
-ensure Chinese security form external threats
-increase Chinese prestige and power in the world

China exploded its first atomic bomb on October 16, 1964, launched its first nuclear missile on October 25, 1966, and tested its first hydrogen bomb on June 14, 1967.

----China's Rivalry w/ India (& USSR's Friendly Relatinoship w/India)

China resented that USSR sent more aid to India, a non-communist country, than to itself even though they are "Fraternal communist allies" - and all aid itself ends in 1960 to China

China and India also in border disputes in 1962 that were largely ignored due to the simultaneous Cuban Missile Crisis but China resented that the USSR had remained neutral rather than supporting it

-----China Border Dispute w/ USSR

Conflict erupts along the Sino-Soviet border when Mao revives an issue that goes back to tsarist times when the russians annexed Chinese land form the collapsing Qin dynasty

The Sino-Soviet split is made public when Albania breaks off relations with USSR and aligns with china, though it was the only state to do so, but now the idea of a monolithic Communist bloc is shattered and divided- which is going to play a major role in Nixon deciding to open relations and in the progression towards a multipolar state

Toward the end of the 1950s, Mao introduced a “crash program” to accelerate the pace of economic and technical development. It proved to be a costly failure, resulting in acute shortages of food and raw materials for industry; overproduction of poor-quality goods; deterioration of industrial plants through mismanagement; the exhaustion and demoralization of the peasantry and the urban intelligentsia, and mass starvation of millions of people.

During this time tremendous internal turmoil within China, which Mao tries to address by establishing a direct relationship b/w himself and the masses (using art, mass media, etc)

Also cultural revolution with Anti-Soviet message, deciding that they are the #1 enemy - which will then initiate a favorable change in relations with the US under the thought that (the enemy of my enemy is my friend)

Ping-Pong diplomacy is initiated lading up to Nixon's historic visit to China

Ping Pong Diplomacy:
US eliminates some travel and trade retractions, revokes trade embargo, China invites US table tennis team to China, ALLOWS PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA TO REPLACE TIAWAN IN UN SECURITY COUNCIL

Ping Pong Diplomacy:
US eliminates some travel and trade retractions, revokes trade embargo, China invites US table tennis team to China, ALLOWS PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA TO REPLACE TIAWAN IN UN SECURITY COUNCIL

Culmination of Nixon's visit to China

trip culminated in the Shanghai Communique:
2 sides pledged to normalize elations economically and culturally
-reduce danger of military conflict
-refrain from seeking “hegemony” in Asia Pacific region a warning to the Soviet Union
US affirmed that Taiwan as part of China and that PRC was sovereign power of China PRC given UN seat

Nixon becomes the first US president to visit China

How Russia plays in:
Both powers want to restrain and contain the USSR
Nixon and Kissinger hoping good relations with Chia would urge them to reach agreement on strategic arms control and political détente in Europe (which it succeeded in doing because the Soviets were faced with a potential threat form the East)

trip culminated in the Shanghai Communique:
-2 sides pledged to normalize elations economically and culturally
-reduce danger of military conflict
-refrain from seeking "hegemony" in Asia Pacific region- a warning to the Soviet Union
-US affirmed that Taiwan as part of China and that PRC was sovereign power of China- PRC given UN seat

• NO LONGER WOULD MOST POPOULOUS COUNTRY BE TREATED AS PARIAH BY MORE PROSPEROUS COUNTRY
• NO LONGER WOULD IT BE VIEWED AS A MONOLITHIN AND MOSCOW CONTROLLED ENTIT

Sets foundation for expansion of trade relations and diplomatic recognition later when Diao Xiaping takes power

The U.S. and China established full diplomatic relations and the U.S. broke diplomatic relations with Taiwan, though Washington continued to insist that the conflict between Beijing and Taipei be settled peacefully.

SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS WERE CEMENTED BY 1980 ON BASIS OF MUTUALY BENEFICIAL ECONOMIC TIES , MODEST AMOUNT OF DIPPLOMATIC COORDINATION , MILITARY COOPERATION AND INTELLGIENCE SHARING ON SOVIET MILITAYR ACTIVITIES

China's campaign to try and modernize the economy during the 1970s was a huge costly failure that led to famine, and Deng Xiaoping takes that as a lesson that the best hope for China is discarding the old Moist plan of self-reliance and to open economy.

Deng launched campaign to shift form focusing n China's internal market to int'l market by shifting from import substitution industrialization to export-oriented production

DENG INTRODUCES THE IDEA OF A LIMITED FREE MKRET AND PRIVATE OWNERSHIP OF PROPERTY INTO MARXIST-LENINSIT THEORY- SIGNIFYING A HUGE TRANSFORMATION FROM ORTHODOX THEORY

In the 1980s he is going to open the economy to foreign markets, investment and trade and join the 3 major Western dominated economic organizations: IMF, World Bank and GATT - SIGNIFIES PARTICIPATION INTHE CAPITALIST ORDER

Overall, Deng Xiaoping is abandoning the MArxist dependency theory that advocated isolationism and self-reliance and embracing the Western liberal model of economic development through global interdependence, imperative advantage and integration with int' trading and financial system

New economic integration also signified new diplomatic relations

Jan 1 1979- Carter and Xiaoping establish formal diplomatic relations and strengthening the Sino-American alliance.

Sino-Amrican Alliance is also strengthened thorugh 2 sources of cohesion:
-China and US vs communist Vietnam
-Both the US and USSR support the ousted Khmer Rhouge

(even though they are communist) against the invading forces

of Vietnam in Cambodia b/c they see Vietnam as a puppet state
of the USSR- their agreement on the issue and lack of US
criticism for China invading Vietnam strengthens relations
-China and US vs Soviets in Afghanistan
-both cooperated to supplying anti-Soviet resistance

Deng made huge strides in progress in integrating China into the modern political and economic system, but domestically although he accepted facets of capitalism he responded ardently against the threat of political liberalization

-As a result f opening China up, Western ideas about democracy begin to penetrate China and a pro-democracy movement will rise up in 1989

-Which leads to Tiananmen Square and the massacre of prodemocracy demonstrators, effectively ending the movement

Protests rose after Deng Xiaoping's new measures of integrating China into political and economic int'l system (by establishing wend diplomatic relations and joining int'l financial organizations) exposed China to western ideas of democracy

But Deng's new reforms of including capitalism in Marxist- theory are not going to include democracy- so when students occupy Tinanamen Square for 7 weeks, he is going to respond violently, and more than 1000 students and protestors are killed, effectively ending the pro-democracy movement in China

HAs experienced growth ever since Nixon opened relations with first visit in 1972

following Deng Xiapoing's rule under Jiang Zemin (1997-2002) it surpassed Japan as the number 2 GDP and became the world's largest exporter, second largest importer and one of largest foreign creditors of the US

And effects of opening up during Xiapoing's rule reverberate to their trade relations with the US today

Curious development that politically, ties were growing coder with US backing anti-communist measures but economically, bonds were starting to loosen

LA became more involved in the int'l economic order - opening up trade to other markets than just the US that made it have higher growth than any other developing countries, attracted foreign investment and spurred a vision of prosperous future

This vision is going to be cut short in 1980 when the debt crisis strikes and LA countries will once again have to become dependent on the US for recover

Prelude to the Cuban Missile Crisis was the failed Bay of Pigs invasion by the US that convinced Castro of an American campaign against him and contributed to his decision to branch out to the USSR for military protection.

Kremlin conceded to grant him IRBm and MRBM, which if they reached Cuban territory would expose the continent US to a nuclear attack

Kennedy announces "quarantine" on Cuba which is a euphemism for blockade (avoided since it is a war term) to prevent Soviet missiles form reaching Cuba

AFTER A DECADE OF RHETORIC ABOUT MASSIVE RETALIAITON AND NUCLEAR EXCHANGES CAME THE DIRECT THREAT OF A NUCLEAR WAR

Acknowledging the possibility of a full out nuclear war, Khrushchev conceded to KEnnedy and turned back the arms shipments.

Deal struck saying missile installations would be dismantled and sent back to the USSR and in exchange US pledged not to invade Cuba and to remove its own missiles from Turkey, basically keeping Cuba secure from US invasion.

Systemic changes:
Revealed extent of SU military inferiority, added internal dissatisfaction with Kruschev (instead of rallying around Communist world) that LED TO OVERTHROW 1964

signified most overt of US conuterinsurgency that signified a number of shifts in LAtin American Policy

Domestically in DR:
Juan Bosch is planning on instituting 'socialist reforms' and although not a comment himself, he has communist support which played into anxiety about the spread of Castroism

US deployed marines and installed pro-US government

Systemically:

Shift from promotion of reform and development to suppression of communism

Surge in counterinsurgency activities across LA which will bring into power autocratic but anti-communist regimes that cooperate with US

Captured and killed in Bolivia, seen by US as triumph of counter-insurgency

Nixon's policy is to oppose any movement or regime the threatens to come under domination of Cuba/ Castro

1970- Salvador Allende becomes the first Marxist elected in a free election, causing considerable embarrassment to the US b/c thy can't say marxism coming in against will of the people- this time they voted for it

Plan to institute radical social and economic reform, including nationalizing Chile's biggest industry - the copper industry that included American copper countries

1971- Allende makes the 'mistakes' a lot of LA leaders will go on to make- meeting with Castro
US sees this as confirmation that Chile planned to cooperate with Cuba and communism

Nixon orders sanctions against Chile and funds covert counterinsurgency operations against him

Nixon had funded CIA covert counterinsurgency operaitons in Chile cooperating with dissident military officers there to plan a coup against Allende

The coup 1973 begins with presidential palace being bombed and Allende dies fighting after soldiers overtake the palace

The US places pro-American military strongman Augusto Pinochet in power, shifting form extreme left politics to extreme right

Begins bloody repression against anybody affiliated with the Allende government and any leftist groups, terminating the possibility of a MArxist state on LA mainland

The US doesn’t ‘like’ the fact that it has to ally with a military strongman but if it is a military leader who is opposed to communism then they will support bloody regimes

Rebellion brews against Anastasio Somoza whose family has ruled for more than 40 years with American support.

Sandinista Liberation Front, named after Nicaraguan general leading fight against US intervention in the 30s, mount insurrection

and oust him- putting Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega in power

Ortega institutes social and economic reform and establishes ties with Castro

conflict falls between 2 presidential terms- different approaches by Carter and Reagan

Carter (until 1981)- with his platform and concentration on Human Rights, Carter is not going to support Samosa's repressive regime and can't support the marxist opposition. Preoccupied with development in the Middle East (IRan hostage Crisis), Carter simply accepts the developments in Nicaragua and remains ambivalent

Reagan
on the other hand denounces Carter for being too weak against MArxist governments now that Ortega has come into power

Reagan is going to denounce Sandinistas as a toll of Havana and by extension Moscow, and supports the emerging counter-revolutionaries the Contras

1980s
Contras= allies fo Samosa and those disillusioned with the Sandinista movement

In the Civil war between the Contras and Sandinistas, Reagan authorized CIA to finance a destabilizing plan against Sandinista, but Congress passed measure that prohibited US finding

Known as the IRan-Contra affair, this nearly leads to Reagan's impeachment as he sought to find loopholes to fund the Contra movement- since it was a mini cold war

The Panama Canal was a sore point between Panama and the US

People resentfult hat there is a waterway that dissects the country and that there is territory alongside it that is sovereign american territory

This resentment broils during Carter’s administration and he is the first president ot open negotiations with the Panamanian government

Panama Canal Treaty agrees to transfer control of the canal to Panama by 1999 (so it will have future symbolic measure)

Affected all of LA but mostly Mexico, cutting short the increasing economic independence it had form the US and once again ring back LA's economic dependence to US monetary and commercial policies

LA amassed huge foreign debt that it thought it could pay off with its booming economic growth

1980s- LA owes 60% of entire global foreign debt
global recession reduced demands for LA goods at a time when export were essential to cover mounting foreign debt

1976-1982- Mexican Pres Jose Lopez Portillo in Power

borrowed heavily to finance an ambitious program of economic modernization. He expected Mexico’s vast oil exports to pay for the interest on the debt and it worked As long as the price of oil continued to rise.

But in 1982 The world price of oil drops drastically, and Mexico ran out
foreign exchange to pay her foreign debt. The Mexican default
Was following by defaults in many other Latin American countries
during the 1980s, causing much hardship and placing a major
strain on the international financial system..

-which cut short the increasing economic independence it had form Us
-now LA’s economic development was once again closely tied to US monetary and commercial policies

This is going to become a trend n LA as it tries to industrialize and that is going to hamper LA developemtn for the rest of the century

Grenada= Caribbean where Marxist MAurice Bishop comes to power, establishes link with Castro (everywhere anyone establishes link with Castro - US will respond)

When Cubans provided arms to Grenada, Reagan wants to avoid "another Cuba" and decides to invade and topple radical government, installing pro-AMerican regime

Successful operation that was also intended to warn Ortega that Sandinista delivery of weapons to El Salvador would have similar response

As a result of the debt crisis LA countries turning toward market oriented growth strategies

“Washington Consensus”
presented new enthusiasm for liberal economic policies which also spurred development of regional trade organizations and treaties like NAFTA, MERCOSUR, etc

Trade liberalization
End government subsidies
Tax reduction
Deregulation
Privatization of state enterprises
Legal protection for property

Trend toward free market also marked PROGRESS FO DEMOCRATIZATION

Evolution toward a market economy during early 190s was accompanied by turn to political democracy in a region accustomed to authoritarianism

Argentina, Brazil, Chile military officers succeeded by civilian politicians who respected human rights and parliamentary procedures

Main exceptions to democratization (Peru, Haiti, Cuba)

Chile exmaple:

1987: Pinochet legalizes political parties and called for a plebiscite to determine whether or not he would remain in power until 1997. - No option wins and Christian Democratic candidate wins free elections

Nicaragua held elections 1990 and Sandinistas voted out of power

In Agreement with the treaty that Carter signed in -?- The Panama Canal is going to become property of Panama and out of the hands of the US- which had always been a sore spot in LA politics since it was seen as a breach of sovereignty on panacean soil

THIS TRANSFER IS GOIGN TO SIGNIFY HOW THE US IS GOING TO DISENGAGE FROM INTERFERING IN LA POLITICS though it will retina close ties but also see the rise of populist governments that voice strong anti-americana nd anti neo liberalism sentiment (VENEZUELA)

Hugo Chavez takes power in Venezuela in 1989- most vocal critic of neo-liberal economic solution - Washington Consensus- for LA economic problems

Populist parties= parties claiming to represent the common people

Radical populist partied began to pop up in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecudaor, Nicaragua, Argentina following the disappointment of the Washignton Consensus which had failed to fulfill economic expectation of LA

The new foreign competition due to opening markets forced local businesses into bankruptcy, workers left without jobs, effects focused more on urban sector so disparity in standard of living apparent b/w urban and rural

Washignotn consensus spurred Mexico joining NAFTA in 1991 - encouraging other LAcountries to make regional trading agreements as well, primarily to protect against not being included in NAFTA (MERCOSUR, Caricom, etc)

Growth of free trade during the 1990s led to openness to the outside world as well and tariffs for foreign goods decline, but this led to political and social consequences
-abadoning protectionism in favor of free-market policies exposed economies to potentially destructive foreign competition
-it also depended social tensions and exacerbated the disparity of wealth in LAn - leading to the rise of populist governemnt- above- that critiqued neo-liberalism policies

Shah was out into power in 1941 by the Soviets and the British and was reposnsible for turning Iran into a major military and regional power and forged a close alliance with the US put into power by

US/Iran relations
In 1953, the CIA returned the Shah to power after being ousted by a nationalist leader and IRan consequently became US's staunchest ally in the region

US was intent on making Iranprincipal force of anti-communism bloc in Persian gulf
Nixon supplied arms for military and naval power and US had access to oil reserves

Opposition grows in late 1970s

-Problem of Secularism
• Shah is a secular ruler (although Muslim in faith) and the secular policies he pursues are going to alienate the Islamic clergy

-Modernizing ecnomy
• Shah is intent on transforming Iran into a modern, industrial state which means the economy must be opened to outside world
• Result is that a lot of multinational corporation set up shop in Iran and indigenous community find it hard to compete with these foreign economic powers

-Political Repression
will uphold an authoritarian regime, jailing any opposition
so he manages to alienate the religious population b/c of secular rule and alienate the liberal population who think Iran should pursue a Western democratic government.

In the aftermath of Suez (and British and French withdrawal from the region), Nasser sees himself as the savior of the Arab people and will try to increase his standing in the Arab world.

With the French and British gone, Israel still stands as a challenger to his pan-Arab dream because it is a non-Arab non-Muslim state

Nasser goes to to establish close link with Krush and USSR - they fund the Aswan dam, but links with the SU failed to produce the Middle East settlement that Egypt and Syria sought so they decided to break the deadlock by force

Israel vs Egypt, Jordan, Syria

Prelude to war:
Nasser challenges Israel by:
-Blocking the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping
- Straits of Tiran = only access to ISrael's sole port on the Red Sea
-Signs military agreement with Syria
-Syria has a reputation as a hardline anti-ISraeli state
-Signs military agreement with Jordan
-Has population that is now referring to themselves as Palestianins
-equals 3 hostile states surrounding Israel
-Evicts UN Emergency Force from Sinai & Gaza (BREAKING POINT)
-Israel interprets this as a plan to attack so they are going to launch a

preemptive attack on Egypt (June 5)

The war was a huge embarrassment for Nasser and his allies because ISrael had been outnumbered and fought the war on three fronts and still managed to win a decisive land war and bring under its control strategic land and holy places
from Egypt- Sinai Peninsula and Gaza Strip
from Jordan- West Bank and East Jerusalem
form Syria - Golan Heights

Israel now 3 x its original size - so not only was Nasser defeated he contributed to the expansion of Israel

New political problem:
The West Bank of the Jordan River is principle home for many Palestinians so now ISrael has 1.5 million Palestinians under its rule

Political Problem led to Birth of PLO (1964) to publicize public grievance soy Palestinians and as a political body representing P who had left their homes in the 1948 war and were refused repatriation

Plant seed for future discord and for Yom Kippur War

After a war of attrition following the 6 day war, Nasser is succeeded by Answar al-Sadat in Egypt

Sadat decides that he has one overall goal: regain his national territory- the Sinai peninsula and Syria also wants to regain Golan heights

So in 1973 Egypt launches its own preemptive war (ISrael had launched the last one) known as the Yom-Kippur War

Though the war was spurred by its own regional dynamics and conflict, the Cold War still managed to permeate the conflict.

Each superpower had a side within the conflict, US resupplied Egypt affirming their strong alliance, and the USSR backed EGypt and Syria which threatened to contradict the detonate Nixon and Brezchnev were constructing. Eventually the superpowers themselves did not become directly involved due to a UN Security Council Decision.

The war also saw the first instance oil was played as weapon of war
as the Arab oil producing nations banded together as OPEC and triggered the first energy shock to punish US and allis for support os Israel.

After Egyptian forces crossed the Suez to overrun ISraeli defenses, the war quickly turned to a stalemate, which signaled to both belligerents that diplomacy was going to need to be an integral part of negotiating Egypt's position in the Middle East and the recuperation of Egypt's land (Sinai Peninsula).

So the war was really a costly failure to Syria and Egypt b/c they did not gain back the entirety of their lost land but the war will have a long lasting impact in the acceptance for further negotiaiotn- Will directly lead to Sadat visiting ISrael and Camp DAvid Accords

Kissinger - current SoS for Carter will conduct shuttle diplomacy that will lead to the first Sinai Withdrawal by Israel - signaling an acceptance to conduct further negotiations.

First arab leader to do so- leading up to Camp David accords

Opposition to secularism and close ties with the US ignite fierce protests that rise to a revolution

The clergy is going to take a front role and the head of the Revolution will be led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (also a spiritual leader (Shi'ite Muslim) not secular leader)
Principal attack against the regime will be close relationship b/w
Iran and US- Shah is depicted as puppet of Uncle Sam

1979- Shah will be exiled and Khomeini comes into power

Anti-american character of the revolution dealt blow to Western interests in a strategically and economically important region
-American economic assets will be seized and military installation shut down
-Cutback in access to Iranian oil will cause difficulty for Japan and Germany

In the detente b/w Egypt and ISrael (especially after Sadat's visit) Carter sees the possibility to begin a process toward peace and will invite both leaders to Camp David (Israel leader now Begin)

After tense and dramatic talks mediated by Carter himself, the talks focused on a bilateral agreement b/w Egypt and ISrael rather than a comprehensive resolution b/w ISrael and Arab countries.

The talks led to the framework of the Egypt-Israel Peace treaty

Bigger Picure:

Camp David represents the first time the US is beginning to get involved with the peace process that will prove to be sustained effort through subsequent presidential succession - using American diplomatic influence to bring about solutions between ISrael and Arab neighbors.
between ISraela nd Arab neighbors

With the oust of the Shah, Khomeini installs a theocratic Ialamic Republic
-religion (Shia branch of Isam- Shi'ite) will dominate the life of the country which it had not under the Shah
-majoirty os Iran population belong to Shia branch of Islam whilee rest of the Muslim world belongs to the sunni branch
-so Khomeini remains a marginal figure in the global view of

Islam
-But he is going to call on Muslim people everywhere to get rid of secular governments and replace them with theocracies
-Islam dominates countries in N. Arica, ME and SE Asia

Khomeini's rule brings a wave of anti-US sentiment that is still present from Revolution and will continue to poison relations especially after the Iranian hostage Crisis

The treaty acknowledged Egypt's recognition of Israel as a state
-was the First Arab state to do so since every other Arab state thought of it as an illegitimate state

Israel agrees to completely withdraw form the Sinai

Israel agrees to discuss the possibility of autonomy for the West Bank

The Arab World Reacts

Most Arab states breka relations with Egypt
-accuse Sadat of looking after Egyptian self-interests rather than

Arab interests

Consequently, Egypt expelled form the Arab League and the Islamic Conference

Sadat will also be assassinated on October 1981because of his progress

Anti-American sentiment is boiling in Iran once Khomeini comes into power

then the Shah, afflicted with cancer, will ever US for medical treatment
-but opposition in Iran is going to assume that the US and the Shah are plotting to overrun Khomeini and reinstate the Shah (as had been done in 1953)

So in response, the Iranian militant students will overtake the US Embassy in Tehran demanding that the Shah be returned to Iran for trial and execution.

November 4, 1979 - hostages will be taken not as act by the government though Khomeini backs it

The Hostage situation presents a huge conflict for Carter who is already being denounced as weak at home
-Iran refuses to release hostages
-Rescue efforts fail
-Iranian gov takes to jailing,exiling or killing any Pro-US Iranian political and military leaders

Crisis contributes to the landslide victory of reagan against Carter in 1980 US election
-Hostages are finally freed on Jan 20, 1981- announced in Reagan's inauguration speech - negotiations had been taking place and had been stalled until Reagan took office
- Carter's ultimate humiliation is that he did not get to announce the freeing of the Iranian hostages

Crisis is TURNING POINT IN COLD WAR
-Now US has lost a major ally in the Middle East
-But USSR also not a victor- also denounced by Khomeini b/c

they are an atheist country
-Poisoned US-Iran relations continue to this day

A secular Arab leader vs. A non-Arab Muslim cleric
-Iran is not an Arab country b/c they speak Persian not Arab and the majority pop is Shi'ite Muslim rather than Sunni Muslim

Justification for war was border conflict, but Hussein sought to exploit the upheaval and isolation of Iran after revolution for quick military victory - Hussein also wants to preent revolutionary forever in IRan form being implement din Iraq - he is secular leader

Iraq takes the offensive but the war eventually degenerates into a WWI type war of attrition that drags on for 8 years and ends up being one of most violent in modern history - with accusations of the use of chemical weapons which had been banned in warfare

US has active role in conflict:
-USSr has close alliance with Iraq but it si not going to get involved
-US is going to support Iraq (has poisonous relations with Iran)
-Reagan gov does not like Hussein but they value a strategic alliance in the area, especially after losing Iran alliance so they are going to get involved indirectly

UN institutes ceasefire in 1988 bringing an end to the war- though result was the status quo
-Iraq claims victory but no side really wins because there is no territory exchange

Fulfilling Camp David Accords from 1978, Israel withdraws form the Sinai- leading the precedent of "land for peace"

"land for peace"
-ISrael gives land they occupy din exchange for recognition as a sovereign entity and peace

But question remains whether same method will work for Gaza Strip, West Bank, and Golan Heights

New Issue:
-What happens to the Israel settlements in the remaining occupied territories

Gulf War = Iraq-Kuwait War + subsequent Desert Storm operation

Iraq's Quarrel with Kuwait
-Borrowed Money
- Iraq had borrowed large amounts of money from Arab countries in
ME, since Iran-IRaq War was supposed to be a war fought on
behalf of the Arab countries
-Iraq is admonished that Kuwait is making it pay back borrowed

money

-Claims of Stolen Oil
- allegations that Kuwait was diverting oil from Iraq into its territory
-Territorial Disputes
- Iraq/Hussein claims that Kuwait is actually part of IRaq
-Kuwait is strategically placed at the mouth of the Persian Gulf so

in 1990, Hussein is going to annex the "little emirate" on one day -

This annexation is going to make US turn alliance and now see itself as defender of Kuwait even though it had previously supported Iraq in Iraq-Iran War

Bush is going to bring issue up against UN Security Council (Aug 6, 1990)
-The UN reaction is fear that Hussein would not stop at invading Kuwait and would then turn sights toward Audi Arabia
-Is Hussein managed to invade Saudi Arabia + Kuwait, it would control over 25% of world oil supplies
-Security Council has unanimous decision demanding unconditional withdrawal of Iraqi troops and sets deadline

George HW Bush forms Coalition Against Iraq of 32 countries including ME countries:
-Saudi Arabia- King Fahd
-Syria- Hafez Assad
-Egypt- Hosni Mubarak
-Britain, France, US and Italy will do most of the fighting though

Coalition acts when deadline ends and Hussein has failed to remove troops form Kuwait
-US led coalition begins air strikes damaging Iraqi infrastructure and on Feb 24, 1991 will invade Kuwait and Souther IRaq
-Within 4 days, Kuwait is liberated
-Bush declares cease fire on Feb 28
-Iraqi forces had surrendered and fled

Overall:
Operation Desert Storm was military and diplomatic success because it included Middle Eastern countries in coalition and had reached UN consensus on use of force

Result: Kuwait is Liberated but Hussein still survives and is in power in Iraq
-Hussein accepts the coalition's peace terms but will make implementation difficult - especially UN inspections to verify Iraq's compliance with nuclear/chemical/biological disarmament

Accepts coalition’s peace terms, but frustrates implementation of those terms, particularly UN weapons inspections to verify Iraq’s compliance with nuclear, biological, and chemical disarmament.
- which will lead too further trouble at the start of the 2000s with the next Us intervention in IRaq under the other Bush

The First Indochina War came to an end in 1954 when both Russia and China pressured Ho Chi Minh to accept a temporary division - and elections were scheduled for 1956
-Soviets wanted to seek better relations with Washington during a 'thaw' in the Cold War
-China was recovering from Korea and did not want another military commitment

North
-Ho Chi Minh
-Allied/received aid from China and USSR

South
-Anti-communist government set up
-Ngo Dinh Diem = leader whose regime is backed since Eisenhower administration from 1954-1960

In this sense of alliance b/w superpowers, Vietnam became a microcosm of the Cold War

1956- Ngo Diem refused to allow a vote, since it was obvious Ho Chi Minh would win the planned election. Diem canceled elections, which ignited resentment in South Vietnam and a call to insurgency from Ho Chi Minh.
-Diem already unpopular in Sotuh Vietnam because his regime is based on corruption and nepotism and he is removed from the people

-The Ngo family does not speak Vietnamese- they speak French

-They are not Buddhist, they are Catholics
-resentment by majority of Buddhist population of the socio-economic contrast that the Catholic elite is running the government
-Buddhist monks demonstrate their plight and the religious conflict by self-immolating as protest

Canceled election lead to an insurrection in the South
-Viet Minh fighters that fought along Ho Chi Minh against the French remain in South Vietnam and are going to organize an insurrection against the government
-Coalition formed including both Communists and non-communists called National Liberation Formed- termed Viet Cong by Diem
-Viet Cong adopt guerrilla tactics that are difficult to suppress

New Kennedy Administration 1961
-Kennedy inherits the problem of Vietnam from Eisenhower administration
-From 1961 to 1963, as the guerrilla war in the south expanded, President Kennedy increased the amount of U.S. aid to Saigon.
-The US was not as yet willing to send in ground troops, though advisors were provided- marking a GRADUAL ESCALATION of American involvement in Vietnam

Kennedy ENGAGES THE MILITARY POWER THROUGH THE GREEN BERETS
-Green Berets are strategy of counter insurgency and nation building to promote the image of the US abroad and help in development and infrastructure

Kennedy tries to engage diplomatic methods by sending Henry Cabot Lodge as Ambassador 1963to South Vietnam and urge for diem to appease concerns of peasants and Buddhist and consider measures like land reforms to boost his popularity- also implies that US would not hesitate to have a change in government

The End of the Diem Regime
-Nov 1, 1963
-Diem assasinated - does not resolve any problems since military strongmen now take power and Viet Cong have effective power over countryside

VIETNAM WAR FOUGTH BETWEEN 1961-1973
• Longest and costliest foreign war
o $150 billion spent
• dropped on Vietnam over 3x the tonnage of bombs dropped onn Germany during WWI
• left a bad legacy for Johnson who had also been purusing “great Society” social reforms
• Budget deficits produced inflation
• “credibility gap” between the optimistic government pronouncement and the grim reality of Vietnam that was seen on TV
o threatened to revive isolationism
o returning veterans suffering from PTSD

America in Vietnam: An Assessment
• What was the real reason why four presidencies with different beliefs relentlessly pursued involvement in Vietnam?
o Markets, raw materials and economic advantage are not enough to account for it
o Instead most motivation came due to China
• Erroneous theories that China was bent on conquering Southeast Asia – which was main justification for intervention in the War
 Considered even more ridiculous by 1970s when Beijing started to look for friendlier relations with Washington

New Kennedy Administration 1961
Kennedy inherits the problem of Vietnam from Eisenhower administration
-From 1961 to 1963, as the guerrilla war in the south expanded, President Kennedy increased the amount of U.S. aid to Saigon.
-The US was not as yet willing to send in ground troops, though advisors were provided marking a GRADUAL ESCALATION of American involvement in Vietnam

Kennedy ENGAGES THE MILITARY POWER THROUGH THE GREEN BERETS
-Green Berets are strategy of counter insurgency and nation building to promote the image of the US abroad and help in development and infrastructure

Kennedy tries to engage diplomatic methods by sending Henry Cabot Lodge as Ambassador 1963to South Vietnam and urge for diem to appease concerns of peasants and Buddhist and consider measures like land reforms to boost his popularity- also implies that US would not hesitate to have a change in government

The End of the Diem Regime
-Nov 1, 1963
-Diem assasinated – does not resolve any problems since military strongmen now take power and Viet Cong have effective power over countryside
LOOK UP DOCUMENT

Kenedy assasinated 2 weeks after Diem - shift in strategy toward Vietnam

Johnson had promised to not send any more troops to Vietnam but under his administration was the expansion of US commitment through military and the draft - had 500,000 troops in Vietnam by the end of Johnson's rule.

Also domestically- LAndslae and other urging that US power will collapse if the US does not enter Vietnam? -Domino theory about SE Asia going Communist (LOOK UP)

Gulf of Tonkin incident- transformed nature of the war - GAVE JUSTIFICATION TO ESCALATE US INVOLVEMENT
-North Vietnam had allegedly fired on two American destroyers on int'l waters prompting Congress to pass the "Tonkin Gulf Resolution" that authorized the US to take "all necessary measures" to prevent armed aggression

1965-1966
-North Vietnam sends its troops to the South and Cambodia also breaks neutrality and supports North Vietnam
-CHANGES NATURE OF THE WAR- NOW AN INSURRECTION NOT JUS CIVIL WAR
-Johnson now does not want to be seen as first president to lose a war so he sees no other option than to escalate the troops sent to fight in South Vietnam

1965-1968 (NOW SEEN AS INSURRECTION NOT JUST CIVIL WAR)
Operation Rolling Thunder
-Massive bombing campaign of North Vietnam - more bombs dropped there than on Nazi Germany
-Still unsuccessful in suppressing Viet Cong and they retain power of rural areas

1965-1968- Mass conscription due to the Draft of men into the military amos up and feeds opposition to the War in the US
-Criticism that some privileged men, such as those that were in college, were able to escape being drafted
-Vietnam war was the first war to be televised which meant the that eUS population was exposed to images of the war- further causing opposition
-This is the first real time opposition to a war begins, there had been no mass opposition to the Korean War or to WWII

After Tet Offensive, Johnson 1968 decides not to run for re-election and is driven form office
-He announced that he would not seek re-election.
-He announced a halt in the bombing of North Vietnam.
-He proposed the opening of peace negotiations with Hanoi’s representatives in Paris to end the war.

Under Johnson administration, bombing campaign of North Vietnam where more bombs were dropped than on Nazi Germany

Ceasefire announced early 1968 to make nat'l holiday of Tet and no combat was expected.

Domestically, US is predicting that the Vietcong and the North Vietnamese are on the verge of defeat

North Vietnamese coordinate an assault in South Vietnam, penetrating Saigon, hoping they would speak an insurgency in Saigon but that does not occur.

Soon the Viet Cong are expelled from the territory they entered and the Tet offensive becomes one of the great disasters for the North Vietnamese

TURNING POINT IN THE WAR -WILL INFLUENCE NIXON'S HANDLING OF VIETNAM
-The Tet offensive demonstrated that the war in the South was unwinnable, and that the rolling Thunder Campaign had not advanced any settlement- making case for negotiation

o Politically it completely undermines the US stance that the war is about to end

• The Tet offensive demonstrated that the war in the South was unwinnable, and that bombing had done nothing to bring forces together to a settlement and that the only way out f a quagmire was halting bombing and negotiating with Hanoi.

After LBJ is driven from running for re-election b/c of domestic opposition to his escalation in Vietnam, Nixon takes power in 1969

Nixon recognizes that the war is unwinnable so he introduces the strategy of Vietnamization
-which means building up the South Vietnamese army so they can provide their own defense after US back out

-But at the same time he is withdrawing troops from Vietnam he is also intensifying air attacks to push North vietnamese government to agree to peace talks

-Domestic Oppositon rises again, most notably at Kent State on May 4 1970 where 4 students are killed and many others wounded

1972-1973
-Nixon and Kissinger agree to cease-fire in order to begin pushing for peace talks held in Paris
-Jan 23, 1973 Us sings peace treaty which says it will withdraw its forces from South Vietnam
-President Theiu does not like the settlement because North Vietnamese troops are still allowed to stay in south Vietnam

1973- Nixon also abolishes the draft in attempt to appease public opposition

After the US withdraws from South Vietnam, the situation deteriorates and the war comes to an end when he North Vietnamese troops take Saigon in 1975

Within two years of the US evacuation,all 3 protester regimes are overthrown by indigenous communist movements.
 APRIL 30, 1975- Saigon falls to N. Vietnam
 Khmer Rouge take power in Cambodia
 Aug 23, 1975 Laos goes communist

So in a way, the domino theory was proved but not to the fullest extent

Vietnam is unified 1976

So basically Us involvement was futile because the government in Saigon fell and Vietnam was unified under Communist rule, as were the government in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.