Let the Brexit chess game begin

For the first time a country is to leave the EU and there is, therefore, no precedent. Procedure is, hopefully, to be created and established and may be useful to record it. Or terminated and that will give us a chance to analyse why. There are many opinions for a start: 1. This may be the beginning of the end of the European Union with other "exits" and consequences to follow; 2. This may be the beginning of the end of Great Britain and the United Kingdom 3. This may be the end of both-the EU and the UK 4. Both may survive and we will analyse how they are doing

Layer 1-Britain's actions

Sterling climbs off lows ahead of Brexit trigger

29 Mar 2017

Theresa May: We believe its necessary to agree the terms of our future partnership alongside those of our withdrawal from the EU

29 Mar 2017

Quote from May's letter and statement triggering Article 50

Brexit day: UK’s EU ambassador arrives at Brussels HQ

29 Mar 2017

Theresa May activates formal talks on Wednesday to withdraw from the bloc

29 Mar 2017

David Davis sets out Great Repeal Bill's aims

30 Mar 2017

Brexit Secretary David Davis sets out in the House of Commons the key goals of the planned Great Repeal Bill, which will see all EU laws transposed into UK law.

Brexit's hard Irish border and need for immigrants questions

10 May 2017

Fane Valley, a Northern Ireland farmers co-operative founded in 1903, has annual sales in excess of £500m and extensive operations on both sides of the border. Trevor Lockhart, the chief executive says the border is "seamless, and we would like to keep it that way".
"The industry is very concerned about a hard border and what that might mean. It would set the industry back 25 years."
Full text on http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39867790

Bank of England warns of consumer spending squeeze

11 May 2017

The Bank said the expected overshoot in inflation to 2.7% this year was "entirely" due to the impact of weak sterling and that raising interest rates would not be an effective way of tackling the increase in living costs.
Before last June's referendum the pound was trading at about $1.47. It is currently trading around $1.29 - some 12% lower.
The Bank also highlighted that its current forecasts were based on the assumption that "the adjustment to the United Kingdom's new relationship with the European Union is smooth".
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39880844

Brexit is already starting to make families poorer, Bank of England warns Grim economic outlook for 2017 is called 'another sign of the Brexit squeeze', just four weeks before the general election

11 May 2017

Is Vince Cable revealing the key answer to the question "Why Britain went for Brexit?"

11 May 2017

" in marked contrast to Britain and the USA, mainstream and outward-looking political forces have prevailed, so far: in Austria, the Netherlands and, crucially and decisively, in France...Meantime the UK electorate is coalescing around three distinct points of view. One is of the implacable Brexiteers, who currently have the wind behind them and feel vindicated by both the referendum and the adoption by the Conservatives of their hard-line, “hard” Brexit agenda. Ukip has now been assimilated into the Conservative Party, its voters and its values."
Full text in http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/vince-cable-brexit-eurosceptics-theresa-may-jean-claude-junker-eurosceptics-a7729601.html

How the UK government used the Indian community to support Brexit

12 May 2017

Fears for economy as number of EU migrants leaving Brexit Britain surges

25 May 2017

Britain's economy faces a potential skills shortage as new official figures show a surge in EU migrants leaving the country in the year of the Brexit vote.

Business groups warned that a sharp fall in net migration last year, driven by a dramatic increase in EU nationals fleeing the UK, meant employers risk "losing key members of staff in positions that cannot easily be replaced".

The Office for National Statistics estimated long-term net migration to be 248,000 in 2016, down a "statistically significant" 84,000 from 2015.

The net change was driven by a big increase in EU citizens leaving the country as well as a smaller fall in people coming to the UK.
Seamus Nevin, head of employment and skills policy at the Institute of Directors, said: "Today's migration figures underline the importance of immigration to the UK workforce and are a warning of the damage a significant reduction could do. Alarmingly, the fall in net migration is being driven as much by people leaving as by fewer arriving. This is a big worry for employers who risk losing key members of staff in positions that cannot easily be replaced from the home-grown pool available. The IoD has repeatedly called for the government to guarantee the status of EU migrants already living here. Doing so would allow businesses to start planning for the future.

Layer 2-EU's actions

‘Brexit is a historical mistake’ – German MEP leader

29 Mar 2017

A senior member of the European Parliament has said Britain had made a “historic mistake” by triggering the Brexit process, warning Britons should brace themselves for a poorer quality of life after withdrawing from the bloc.

EU’s Brexit chief Barnier: “I’m ready”

29 Mar 2017

Merkel: EU should push for enlargement after Brexit

30 Mar 2017

Juncker: Brexit is ‘new beginning’ for EU

30 Mar 2017

EU strikes first-Brexit deal will not automatically apply to Gibraltar – EU guidelines

31 Mar 2017

Some intriguing pull-outs from the EU’s opening gambit in the Brexit talks.

According to a draft nine-page set of guidelines sent out to the EU’s 27 leaders today, any agreement between the bloc and the UK will not automatically apply to Britain’s overseas territory of Gibraltar.

Donald Tusk: Starting parallel talks on all issues at the same time as suggested by some in the UK will not happen

31 Mar 2017

EU leaders prepare tough opening guidelines in Brexit talks

31 Mar 2017

EU leaders are preparing a tough opening stance for Brexit talks, according to the draft of the bloc’s first formal response to Britain’s request to begin Article 50 exit talks.

Brexit: Five important points in the EU's negotiation plan

31 Mar 2017

Draft guidelines following the United Kingdom's notification under Article 50 TEU

31 Mar 2017

Layer 3: How the rest of the world behaves

Ford company warns Britain

29 Mar 2017

Ford has warned that the competitiveness of the UK’s auto industry will be put “at risk” if Britain leaves the EU without a deal that provides access to the market, in its starkest warning over the future of British production yet.

Russia takes advantage-Gazprom sold an £850m

29 Mar 2017

Gazprom sold an £850m seven-year corporate bond Wednesday, following sales of dollar, euro and swiss franc debt this year as the Russian state-backed energy group took advantage of favourable market conditions to diversify its sources of funding.

"It's the day in which Britain lost more power and influence than in any other day of my peacetime life.” Lord Heseltine

29 Mar 2017

Citi warns staff to prepare for hard Brexit consequences

30 Mar 2017

Citi is preparing for a “hard” Brexit that could force it to relocate jobs from the UK and create a new broker dealer entity in the EU, the bank’s EMEA boss Jim Cowles has told staff.

UK consumer, business confidence weak in lead-up to Brexit trigger

31 Mar 2017

Betrayed' Gibraltar claim PM ignorred their request

2 Apr 2017

The Gibraltar crisis worsened last night after the colony’s government accused Theresa May of making it easier for Spain to use Brexit as an excuse to grab it back.
Well-placed sources said Gibraltar’s Chief Minister Fabian Picardo asked Mrs May to include Gibraltar’s right to stay British in her Article 50 letter – but he was ignored.
And Spain raised the stakes by threatening to link the fate of the Britons who live in Spain to resolving the row over the Rock.

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