TSDM Policy

US Elements

SEN Durbin calls for safe zones

10/1/11 - 11/1/11

Writes to administaion

SEN Durbin calls for safe zones

10/01/11 - 11/01/11

Writes to administaion

Obama Administration engage multilateral negotiated settlemtn between opppositoin and regime

01/01/12 - 10/18/15

Non-lethal support, covert assistance to some armed groups, assertion that there is no military solution to conflict

US recognizes the Syrian Coalition, formed in Qatar

12/11/12

none

Administration notifies congress intent to provide food/medidcal supplies to SOC and Turkey based mil council

03/01/13

US report on Assad using chem weapons

08/21/13

none

Administration notifies congress use of contngncy auth's under FAA 1961 to for nonlethal commodities an services to SMC

09/01/13

SECDEF Hagel testifies at SFRC hearing - Covert weapons provision

09/01/13

that administartionwas providing arms under covert action authorities. Classified breifing would/could provide more details

SFRC votes in favor of AUMF to respond to Chem wpns usage in Syria (3)

9/6/13 - 9/7/13

None

SFRC votes in favor of AUMF to respond to Chem wpns usage in Syria (3)

09/06/13 - 09/07/13

State dept announces items and support given to moderate SMC

01/01/14

none

Obama - Engagement in Syria focused on Syrians fighting ISIS

09/06/14

Meet the press - also still seeking to do political transition

Obama states his view that war syrian civil war will only end when there is an inclusive political transition and a government that serves syrians of all ethnicities and religions.

02/19/15

EUCOM Posutre Statement

2/25/15 - 3/26/15

Calling for reformulation of Strategy. Assure, deter, defend against russian aggression.

EUCOM Posutre Statement

02/25/15 - 03/26/15

Calling for reformulation of Strategy. Assure, deter, defend against russian aggression.

CENTCOM Posutre Statement

3/3/15 - 4/3/15

Stresses the Levant and the CERP??

CENTCOM Posutre Statement

03/03/15 - 04/03/15

Stresses the Levant and the CERP??

Senators write to POTUS (4)

4/21/15 - 4/22/15

Call for estab of Safe Zone and transit route for humantrn supplies.

Senators write to POTUS (4)

04/21/15 - 04/22/15

Call for estab of Safe Zone and transit route for humantrn supplies.

CJCS Dempsey and SECDEF testity before Senate Approp Subcom on Defense on Pres Obama's Fiscal 2016 Budget Request

05/06/15 - 05/07/15

Dempsey: would be significant policy decision; Ash Carter: Would take a fight. Dempsey highlights cognitive dissonance between doing something like this, with 250 billion in sequestration cuts over next 5 years.

CJCS Dempsey and SECDEF testity before Senate Approp Subcom on Defense on Pres Obama's Fiscal 2016 Budget Request

5/6/15 - 5/7/15

Dempsey: would be significant policy decision; Ash Carter: Would take a fight. Dempsey highlights cognitive dissonance between doing something like this, with 250 billion in sequestration cuts over next 5 years.

Press conf w/ CJCS Dempsey and SECDEF Carter, announcing

5/7/15 - 5/8/15

Assad regime described as "much weakend", and they could accede large chunks of terrirotyr

US specail envoy to syria "defeating extremists in Syria requires military action and broader comprehensive political solution"

05/18/15

A state dept media note

SECSTATE Kerry still believes "political track" may have life in it

06/16/15

none

SECDEF Carter testifies to SASC

07/07/15

Delivers the Assad GO, moderate opposition rise w/ existing politcal insititutional strucutures, then take on ISIS

House and Senate proposals related to Syria and AUMF against ISIS

7/15/15 - 10/18/15

None

House and Senate proposals related to Syria and AUMF against ISIS

07/15/15 - 10/18/15

none

Situational Factor

Shia militia's and Iran transition from support to operational

01/01/11 - 10/18/15

none

Syrian uprising starts

3/1/11 - 10/18/15

None

Syrian uprising starts

03/01/11 - 10/18/15

none

Russia Vetoed 3 USNCR's on Syria during this period (2)

10/1/11 - 2/10/14

Russia will only permit humanitarian efforts if Syria agrees to them, which they wont

Russia Vetoed 3 USNCR's on Syria during this period (2)

10/01/11 - 02/10/14

Russia will only permit humanitarian efforts if Syria agrees to them, which they wont

Extremists begin emerging

11/1/11 - 12/1/12

ANF claims 600 attacks, 40 suicide attacks,and IED's

Extremists begin emerging

11/01/11 - 12/01/12

ANF claims 600 attacks, 40 suicide attacks,and IED's

Hezbollah begins protecting regime supply lines

01/01/13 - 10/18/15

none

800,000 Syrians under siege

1/1/14 - 10/18/15

Homs, Aleppo, Deir Ezzor, Damascuc

800,000 Syrians under siege

01/01/14 - 10/18/15

Homs, Aleppo, Deir Ezzor, Damascuc

Formation of a "New European Security Environements (1)

2/25/14 - 2/25/15

None

Formation of a "New European Security Environements (1)

02/25/14 - 02/25/15

None

Mid 2014 ISIS offensive in Iraq

7/1/14 - 9/1/14

None

Mid 2014 ISIS offensive in Iraq

07/01/14 - 09/01/14

none

Anti-assad opposition elements clash, with little to some collaboration

1/1/15 - 4/1/15

Described as early 2015

"Strong on defense" game played in Congress, manipulation of OCO funds (3)

1/1/15 - 10/18/15

Dems threaten to block Repub's plan to use OCO funds to boost defense spending

2,000 barrel bombs dropped in Syria killing 6,000 people (4)

1/1/15 - 4/21/15

Report estimates 2/3'rds syrian population resides in in government held terriotory

1/1/15 - 1/2/15

Opposition has scored tactical victories in '15. Regime may have to take up defensive positions in urban cetners and coast.

2,000 barrel bombs dropped in Syria killing 6,000 people (4)

01/01/15 - 04/21/15

none

"Strong on defense" game played in Congress, manipulation of OCO funds (3)

01/01/15 - 10/18/15

Dems threaten to block Repub's plan to use OCO funds to boost defense spending

Anti-assad opposition elements clash, with little to some collaboration

01/01/15 - 04/01/15

Described as early 2015

Report estimates 2/3'rds syrian population resides in in government held terriotory

01/01/15 - 01/02/15

Opposition has scored tactical victories in '15. Regime may have to take up defensive positions in urban cetners and coast.

ISIS sufffers setback from US and Kurdish forces

01/01/15 - 10/18/15

none

Government forces fall in Idlib

03/01/15 - 03/02/15

recognized as a victory for oppostion forces, perhaps a turning point

ISIS launches offensives in Central and Northern Syria

5/1/15 - 6/30/15

Conflicting with both pro and anti-assad forces (rise in ISIS has prompted shift in focus from the political and

ISIS launches offensives in Central and Northern Syria

05/01/15 - 06/30/15

Conflicting with both pro and anti-assad forces (rise in ISIS has prompted shift in focus from the political and

Press conf w/ CJCS Dempsey and SECDEF Carter, announcing

05/07/15 - 05/08/15

Assad regime described as "much weakend", and they could accede large chunks of terrirotyr

US officials - "Syria's armed forces "much weakened""

6/1/15 - 10/18/15

None

US officials - "Syria's armed forces "much weakened""

06/01/15 - 10/18/15

none

Upcoming 2016 elections (3)

10/18/15 - 7/1/16

Repubs need to defend 24 seats to Dems 10 seats.

Upcoming 2016 elections (3)

10/18/15 - 07/01/16

Repubs need to defend 24 seats to Dems 10 seats.

Global Elements

Greece curbs migration (1)

8/1/12 - 9/1/12

began an operation to curb illegal migration

Greece curbs migration (1)

08/01/12 - 09/01/12

began an operation to curb illegal migration

Doha Meeting where syrian opp factions formed ubrella organizatin call the syrian coaltion or SC.

11/01/12

US recognized coalition as legitiamate representative of syrian people

Assad reacts to US Threats of use of force in Chem weapons (2)

8/1/13 - 9/1/13

Under Russian pressure,Assad complies

Assad reacts to US Threats of use of force in Chem weapons (2)

08/01/13 - 09/01/13

Under Russian pressure,Assad complies

UNSCR 2118

9/27/13 - 9/28/13

Requires scheduled destruction of Syria's Chem weapons - Unanimous

UNSCR 2118

09/27/13 - 09/28/13

Requires scheduled destruction of Syria's Chem weapons - Unanimous

Italy ramps up Migration efforts

10/1/13 - 10/13/15

Very problematic and taxing on Italian Navy

Italy ramps up Migration efforts

10/01/13 - 10/13/15

Very problematic and taxing on Italian Navy

UNSCR 2139 adopted

2/22/14 - 7/13/14

calls to allow humanitarian aid to pass into syria, and also stop beseiging civilians

UNSCR 2139 adopted

02/22/14 - 07/13/14

calls to allow humanitarian aid to pass into syria, and also stop beseiging civilians

Israeli Operation Protective Edge (1)

6/1/14 - 9/1/14

Israel v Hamas led gov't in Gaza.

Israeli Operation Protective Edge (1)

06/01/14 - 09/01/14

Israel v Hamas led gov't in Gaza.

UNSCR 2165 adopted

7/14/14 - 12/16/14

adds border crossing for humtrn aid WITH notification of Syrian authorites. 2139 was not complied with, so this was done for further beef up 2139. Warned of "further measures" if not complied by SYRIAN government.

UNSCR 2165 adopted

07/14/14 - 12/16/14

adds border crossing for humtrn aid WITH notification of Syrian authorites. 2139 was not complied with, so this was done for further beef up 2139. Warned of "further measures" if not complied by SYRIAN government.

FRONTEX launches Operation Orion Triton (1)

10/1/14 - 11/1/14

designed to help cope with NAME migrants

FRONTEX launches Operation Orion Triton (1)

10/01/14 - 11/01/14

designed to help cope with NAME migrants

UNSCR 2191 adopted

12/17/14 - 1/10/16

Renews 2165 through 10 January, 2016

UNSCR 2191 adopted

12/17/14 - 01/10/16

Renews 2165 through 10 January, 2016

UNSCR 2209adopted

03/06/15

condemned use of chlorine. Put teeth to this, if in event of non-compliance, chapter VII of UN charter would be invoked.

Turkey's FM agrees with US to provide air cover to trained rebels in Syria (3)

5/25/15 - 5/26/15

Turkey is ready to sit down and start talks about setting up safe zones

Turkey's FM agrees with US to provide air cover to trained rebels in Syria (3)

05/25/15 - 05/26/15

Turkey is ready to sit down and start talks about setting up safe zones

SOC Boycotts Cairo conference to develop politcal roadmap

06/01/15 - 06/02/15

none

OCO Funds

Original Syrian T&E program paid in FY14

9/1/13 - 9/1/14

None

Original Syrian T&E program paid in FY14

09/01/13 - 09/01/14

none

POTUS requests $385 million for OCO for opposition assistance for FY15 and FY16

9/1/14 - 9/1/16

None

POTUS requests $385 million for OCO for opposition assistance for FY15 and FY16

09/01/14 - 09/01/16

POTUS seeks additional $600 million in defense spending for Syrian T&E, É.PLUSÉ. Additional 1.6 billion in syria related FY16 hum aid

9/1/15 - 9/1/16

T&E first paid for in FY2014

POTUS seeks additional $600 million in defense spending for Syrian T&E, Ä.PLUSÄ. Additional 1.6 billion in syria related FY16 hum aid

09/01/15 - 09/01/16

T&E first paid for in FY2014